Each day we present verification maps and statistics for yesterday's smoke forecast. On this page you will find:

  1. Maps: centred on Western Canada showing how well our smoke forecast did at observation stations for different windows in time and space, currently for BC;
  2. Statistics: mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-squared error (RMSE), hit rate, accuracy, and false alarm rate of our smoke forecast;
  3. Individual traces: Station PM2.5 observations along with smoke forecasts interpolated to each station.

Verification Maps

Time Window Spatial Window
± 0 hours (no window) ± 0 km (no window) View Map
± 3 hours ± 22 km View Map
± 5 hours ± 55 km View Map
± 10 hours ± 110 km View Map
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Verification Statistics

We calculate multiple statistics for yesterday's smoke forecast, including:

  • Mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-squared error (RMSE), lower value is better for both;
  • Accuracy (higher better), hit rate (higher better), and false alarm rate (lower better).
Below, you will currently find plots of these statistics for all BC stations, and for three BC zones: Northern British Columbia, defined as above 55 degrees latitude, Interior British Columbia, which is defined as east of 124 degrees W in longitude, and Coastal British Columbia, which is defined as west of 124 degrees W in longitude.

All BC Stations

BC Zones

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Individual Station Traces

Below are plots of traces for the PM2.5 observations and BlueSky model forecasts for each station in BC. The background smoke is estimated as 10 ug/m3 and has been added to the raw forecast output. This value was selected from a previous study (Howard, 2015) of 41 stations in Alberta.

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